Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Do I really have to care?

Okay, I get it, July is a slow sports month and there is not much going. It is the middle of the baseball season before the playoff races really get started, Tiger Woods has stopped playing golf, and college football practices haven’t started. I also understand the NFL has taken over the sports industry. As ESPN Radio’s Colin Cowherd says, “There are two sports seasons, football season and waiting for football season.” I like the NFL, I follow a couple of teams fairly religiously, I had three fantasy football teams, and my Sundays revolve around wings, the beer special, and the NFL.

But really, tell me again why I am supposed to care where a now past his prime 38-year old turnover machine may or may not play next season? Why can I not turn on any of the ESPN stations without hearing about Brett Favre? I am not even going to get into what the Packers should do, whether his overly inflated, flip-flopping ego is hurt because Green Bay doesn’t want him back, what other teams would or would not want him, how this effects his legacy, whether we should feel sorry for Aaron Rodgers, and on and on and on. I do not care, and I do not know why ESPN and numerous other sports media outlets keep telling me I am supposed to.

Maybe I am missing something, maybe everyone else is right, and maybe I should care. So I decided to do some research. Yes, Brett Favre is a first ballot Hall of Famer, he has broken numerous NFL career passing records, has won three MVP awards, and has a Super Bowl ring. According to my research, he was really good in the mid to late 90s, but that doesn’t tell me why I should care in 2008.

So, I looked at the most recent three-year period to see how this “icon” compares to his peers in the NFL. The answer, not very well.

In the past three years, eight quarterbacks (Favre, Peyton, Brady, Brees, Palmer, Roethlisberger, Hasselbeck, and Eli) have averaged at least 14 regular season games played. In those three seasons, the other seven QBs, with Eli Manning’s plus-seven included, have an average turnover margin of +36. During that span, Favre’s turnover margin is -6. That is a 42 turnover difference if you are scoring at home. I have never played or coached football, but turnover margin and ball possession are important, right?

Some other important stats I have heard about are QB rating and completion percentage. Again, including Eli’s 75.6, the other seven have an average QB rating of 91.8. Brett Favre has a QB rating of 79.8, ahead of only Eli and almost a full 10 points behind sixth place on the list, Hasselbeck’s 88.5. Let’s try completion percentage. Again, only Eli’s is worse.

So does that mean that Brett Favre is the seventh best QB in the NFL today? I think not. It's debatable that he is better than Eli (who just won a Super Bowl). There are also several other QBs, who did not qualify for the above based on my arbitrary requirements, who have performed better in recent years than Favre. Injuries have limited Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger, Jake Delhomme, and Kurt Warner to 10-12 games per year over the last three, but their numbers are better than Favre’s. Tony Romo (by far) and Phillip Rivers (by a good amount) have outplayed Favre while starting most of their team’s games in the past two seasons.

In the 90s, Brett Favre was the man. In 2008, he is a mediocre gunslinger who can’t give it up. Could he help some teams? Sure, anyone is an improvement over Alex Smith, Kyle Boller, whoever the Falcons run out there, and of course, Rex Grossman. But am I really supposed to care THIS MUCH? If I care about Favre, I think ESPN Classic is the only place I should be able to find him.

4 comments:

Gene Parmesan said...

Turnover machine?!?!?! I think the term you were looking for was "gunslinging badass machine with 40 gigantic wangs and a rocket-arm with a penchant for deception that can be contained by neither man nor beast."

He is a turnover machine, though.

Anonymous said...

Good post HG. While I like the Cleveland Browns, peoples obsession over the NFL is absurd. ESPN would rather become the NFL network than cover other sports. Just look at how they stopped covering other sports when Brett Farve began whispering creepily to Chris Mortensen. The NFL sucks. Stop shoving it down our throats. Please, just cover the NFL during football season, not a half an hour during sportscenter in july.

A-Train

Unknown said...

mabye espn could cover swim meets.

Hoosier Gamecock said...

Is there a Matt Shuey sighting on the blog? Good comment Shuey, keep them coming.